economy

Impact of new jobs report on Glen home buyers & sellers

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The Labor Department reported last Friday that the economy created 271,000 new jobs in October which is much better than anticipated; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5%. That’s great news, of course.   In simple terms, people without jobs can’t purchase homes, so more jobs = a larger pool of prospective buyers.

Even entry level jobs can positively impact the market for higher priced homes in places like The Glen and greater Glenview where I focus my real estate practice. Why? Because the sale of an existing entry level home turns the home seller into a buyer of another home, presumably one with a higher price point.

There is a downside to today’s report, though my sense is that it will modest, at least in the short term. With the very positive news on job growth, the Fed is more likely to increase interest rates at its next meeting in December. If so, it will be the first increase since 2006. While the federal funds rate is not directly tied to mortgage interest rates, it increases the borrowing costs of lenders who will pass along their additional costs to their home buyer clients in the form of higher mortgage rates. I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV, but I suspect that the Fed’s December increase (if it occurs) and any further increases next year will be modest because the Fed does not want to throw a wrench into a still recovering economy.

So here’s the take away:  A healthier employment climate will increase housing demand, but expect modest increases in mortgage interest rates in 2016.

Margaret Ludemann

Realtor, @properties, Glenview Illinois

847-401-1802   margaretludemann@gmail.com

Glen real estate market strong. “Normal” by 2015/16.

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The residential real estate market in The Glen, Glenview, and elsewhere is in the early stages of returning to what we would recognize as normal, meaning relatively steady growth in sales and prices in most years.

Why? Well, consumer confidence has been trending up, and it is near a six year high. Interest rates remain low by historic standards. Inflation is low, the stock market has been moving higher (recently hitting an all-time high), the unemployment rate has fallen from 10% in October 2009 to 6.3% in April, and jobless claims recently hit at a 7 year low. While performance has fluctuated on a monthly and quarterly basis in each of these categories, the longer view suggests a positive environment for housing over the next several years.

This is how we got here: We had the unprecedented run-up in home sales and prices in the early-to-mid 2000’s, followed by the bust in 2007 through 2009. Steep declines were followed by less severe declines which were followed by modest improvement. Then came 2013, a year with booming sales and prices.

Sales in The Glen look strong again in 2014, though perhaps not at last year’s pace. Prices, too, continue to rise faster than normal, but they may not reach the levels of 2013. Are somewhat lower sales and price increases compared with red hot 2013 reason to worry? I would argue that for the longer term they are actually a positive sign. We’re moving toward an environment where most homes neither languish on the market for months on end nor sell immediately. This is positive because it is more sustainable. Hot markets are never sustainable. Weak markets eventually recover. We’re heading in the direction of moderate sales and pricing growth in most years, with a few bumps along the way which is…normal.

We’re not at normal yet. Home prices in The Glen are still on a strong recovery path; and we will make up a lot of lost ground this year. Then perhaps in 2015 or 2016 we’ll be back to a more sustainable real estate market, perhaps a little slower one year and a little faster the next, in line with the usual ups and downs of the economy and interest rates.

Margaret Ludemann

Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor

847-401-1802,margaretludemann@gmail.com

Home sales surge, prices rise, time on market falls in The Glen

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2013 was the year that Glen homeowners have been waiting for.  The Glen is an upscale residential and retail development in Glenview, Illinois in the Chicago area’s North Shore. The real estate market for its homes was exceptionally strong.  Sales were up considerably, prices rebounded nicely, and the time it took to sell homes fell.  Further, nearly every Glen home listed for sale in 2013 sold.

Broad economic factors positively influenced existing home sales in the U.S. which gained 9.3% for the year.  The U.S. economy gathered strength through 2013.  Job growth continued to climb.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate fell to 7% by November 2013 from 7.9% in January 2013 and from its recent high of 10% in October 2009.  Interest rates remained at historically low levels, though they inched upward during the year.  Low rates and the prospect of higher future interest rates served as incentives for many potential home buyers.  Stocks soared during the year with the S & P 500 gaining 29.6% which no doubt made potential home buyers feel more financially secure.

Years of declining values once again brought many bargain hunting investors into the U.S. housing market.  Pent up demand by trade-up buyers also fueled the increase in home sales. 

As prices rose during the year fewer homeowners found themselves “under water” (homes worth less than the mortgage balance), thereby reducing their incentive to sell.  This resulted in a decline of available housing inventory.  Over the last several years sellers far outnumbered buyers, but that was reversed in 2013 giving sellers the negotiating advantage.  The result…further improvement in home prices.

It was the best year for home sales and prices in years, and you will see that reflected in my future blogs dealing specifically with sales of Glen homes.

Margaret Ludemann

Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor