interest rates

Impact of new jobs report on Glen home buyers & sellers

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The Labor Department reported last Friday that the economy created 271,000 new jobs in October which is much better than anticipated; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5%. That’s great news, of course.   In simple terms, people without jobs can’t purchase homes, so more jobs = a larger pool of prospective buyers.

Even entry level jobs can positively impact the market for higher priced homes in places like The Glen and greater Glenview where I focus my real estate practice. Why? Because the sale of an existing entry level home turns the home seller into a buyer of another home, presumably one with a higher price point.

There is a downside to today’s report, though my sense is that it will modest, at least in the short term. With the very positive news on job growth, the Fed is more likely to increase interest rates at its next meeting in December. If so, it will be the first increase since 2006. While the federal funds rate is not directly tied to mortgage interest rates, it increases the borrowing costs of lenders who will pass along their additional costs to their home buyer clients in the form of higher mortgage rates. I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV, but I suspect that the Fed’s December increase (if it occurs) and any further increases next year will be modest because the Fed does not want to throw a wrench into a still recovering economy.

So here’s the take away:  A healthier employment climate will increase housing demand, but expect modest increases in mortgage interest rates in 2016.

Margaret Ludemann

Realtor, @properties, Glenview Illinois

847-401-1802   margaretludemann@gmail.com

The real estate market is strong this year…nationally and in the Glen

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As a realtor I’m asked about the real estate market every day.  And since I live in The Glen, a luxury home development in Glenview Illinois, everyone wants to know how homes are selling here.  Well, the market is strong, thank you very much.

Home sales are up nationally and in in the Glen. New construction is leading the way; and in the Glen that means in the Westgate and Patriot Commons neighborhoods.  It’s anticipated that new home sales will be up over 20% across the country. Existing home sales nationwide will likely increase 5% to 7% this year which is also strong.

The strength of home sales is primarily due to three factors:

  1. First time home buyers. Rents have increased substantially this year, encouraging many renters to purchase homes.
  2. Lending standards have eased up which is increasing the buyer pool.
  3. Continued low interest rates. Mortgage interest rates have trended up modestly in the last few months (about a quarter point), but they remain low by historical standards. Thirty year fixed rate loans are currently at about 4.1%, and jumbos are at this same level. Many home sales in the Glen – particularly in the Southgate, Tower Crossing, Chapel Crossing, Landings, and Cambridge neighborhoods – involve jumbo loans. Jumbos typically carry a somewhat higher rate, though that is not the case currently. Interest rates may increase a bit more in 2016 and 2017 making now a good time for buyers (and therefore for sellers, too).

The Glen is a wonderful place to live. In addition to all of the beautiful homes, the community lifestyle is hard to beat. There are two great golf courses, both within walking distance of any home in the Glen. The central marketplace is called Glen Town Center which has numerous restaurants (casual and upscale), many shops and boutiques, a movie theater, and a book store. If you are interested in living in the Glen, please contact me. I am a long time Glen homeowner and an award winning realtor affiliated with @properties.

Margaret Ludemann   margaretludemann@gmail.com   847-401-1802

Positive economic environment for real estate sales

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The economic environment for real estate sales was positive through most of 2014, and that good news should continue in 2015. After a slow start in the first quarter 2014 due to the long winter, the American economy had the strongest 6 month performance in 11 years including a 5% growth rate on an annual basis in the 3rd quarter.

Job growth picked up steam in 2014. Nationally the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.6%, down from 7% a year ago and from its high of 10% in October 2009. Illinois unemployment dropped to 6.4% (through November 30), its lowest point since June 2008.

Interest rates remained low during the year. That was somewhat surprising as they were expected to rise in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

The Dow ended 2014 at 17,823, up 7.52% after a remarkable increase of 29.65% in 2013.

The economy is expected to be favorable for home sales in 2015…with growth picking up, unemployment continuing to fall, and mortgage interest rates remaining low (though moving up modestly later in the year). A week ago, mortgage rates hit their 20 month low. Freddie Mac reported the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate at 3.59%; and 15 year fixed rate mortgages averaging 2.92%

I see home prices rising again, in line with historical norms of 3% to 4%. The bottom line is that if you want to sell your home in 2015, you’ll probably get it done and at a better price than a few years ago.

Margaret Ludemann, @properties Realtor, homeowner in The Glen, Glenview, Illinois

Mortgage interest rates: good news for home buyers and sellers

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A few weeks ago a potential buyer of a home in The Glen (in Glenview Illinois) told me that he was holding off buying a home until mortgage interest rates improve. I believed that was unwise, so I researched historical 30 year, fixed rate mortgage interest rates using Freddie Mac data. I grouped them into 5 year periods and calculated the averages. What did I learn…that recent mortgage interest rates are roughly half what they were 25 years ago!

The average rate in August (the most recent data available) was 4.12% for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. This is a smidgeon higher than early months of 2013. Rates, however, have inched downward in each of the last 4 months; and that August rate of 4.12% is actually lower than the same month last year. So it is clear that home financing today is extremely low. While rates may bump along with modest increases and decreases in the short term, there is no evidence that they will become appreciably lower in the foreseeable future. In fact, it is likely that rates will eventually increase to more normal levels.

Interest rates matter…a lot…because they affect a buyer’s monthly payment and the total cost of financing over the period of ownership of a home. Every 1% rise in interest rates reduces buying power by approximately 11%. Obviously today’s low interest rates are beneficial to home buyers, but they are also good for home sellers. If buyers can purchase more house because of low interest rates, there are more qualified buyers for sellers’ homes.

If you are interesting in buying a home in The Glen or greater Glenview, please email me at Margaret.ludemann@cbexchange.com or call me at 847-401-1802.

Margaret Ludemann, Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor

Glen real estate market strong. “Normal” by 2015/16.

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The residential real estate market in The Glen, Glenview, and elsewhere is in the early stages of returning to what we would recognize as normal, meaning relatively steady growth in sales and prices in most years.

Why? Well, consumer confidence has been trending up, and it is near a six year high. Interest rates remain low by historic standards. Inflation is low, the stock market has been moving higher (recently hitting an all-time high), the unemployment rate has fallen from 10% in October 2009 to 6.3% in April, and jobless claims recently hit at a 7 year low. While performance has fluctuated on a monthly and quarterly basis in each of these categories, the longer view suggests a positive environment for housing over the next several years.

This is how we got here: We had the unprecedented run-up in home sales and prices in the early-to-mid 2000’s, followed by the bust in 2007 through 2009. Steep declines were followed by less severe declines which were followed by modest improvement. Then came 2013, a year with booming sales and prices.

Sales in The Glen look strong again in 2014, though perhaps not at last year’s pace. Prices, too, continue to rise faster than normal, but they may not reach the levels of 2013. Are somewhat lower sales and price increases compared with red hot 2013 reason to worry? I would argue that for the longer term they are actually a positive sign. We’re moving toward an environment where most homes neither languish on the market for months on end nor sell immediately. This is positive because it is more sustainable. Hot markets are never sustainable. Weak markets eventually recover. We’re heading in the direction of moderate sales and pricing growth in most years, with a few bumps along the way which is…normal.

We’re not at normal yet. Home prices in The Glen are still on a strong recovery path; and we will make up a lot of lost ground this year. Then perhaps in 2015 or 2016 we’ll be back to a more sustainable real estate market, perhaps a little slower one year and a little faster the next, in line with the usual ups and downs of the economy and interest rates.

Margaret Ludemann

Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor

847-401-1802,margaretludemann@gmail.com