interest rates

Glen real estate market strong. “Normal” by 2015/16.

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The residential real estate market in The Glen, Glenview, and elsewhere is in the early stages of returning to what we would recognize as normal, meaning relatively steady growth in sales and prices in most years.

Why? Well, consumer confidence has been trending up, and it is near a six year high. Interest rates remain low by historic standards. Inflation is low, the stock market has been moving higher (recently hitting an all-time high), the unemployment rate has fallen from 10% in October 2009 to 6.3% in April, and jobless claims recently hit at a 7 year low. While performance has fluctuated on a monthly and quarterly basis in each of these categories, the longer view suggests a positive environment for housing over the next several years.

This is how we got here: We had the unprecedented run-up in home sales and prices in the early-to-mid 2000’s, followed by the bust in 2007 through 2009. Steep declines were followed by less severe declines which were followed by modest improvement. Then came 2013, a year with booming sales and prices.

Sales in The Glen look strong again in 2014, though perhaps not at last year’s pace. Prices, too, continue to rise faster than normal, but they may not reach the levels of 2013. Are somewhat lower sales and price increases compared with red hot 2013 reason to worry? I would argue that for the longer term they are actually a positive sign. We’re moving toward an environment where most homes neither languish on the market for months on end nor sell immediately. This is positive because it is more sustainable. Hot markets are never sustainable. Weak markets eventually recover. We’re heading in the direction of moderate sales and pricing growth in most years, with a few bumps along the way which is…normal.

We’re not at normal yet. Home prices in The Glen are still on a strong recovery path; and we will make up a lot of lost ground this year. Then perhaps in 2015 or 2016 we’ll be back to a more sustainable real estate market, perhaps a little slower one year and a little faster the next, in line with the usual ups and downs of the economy and interest rates.

Margaret Ludemann

Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor

847-401-1802,margaretludemann@gmail.com

Real estate market losing steam? Not in The Glen!

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I measured it.  It was ¾”.  That was the distance between two articles on page 3 of the Chicago Tribune’s Business Section of March 26.  One article said that home prices went down in January.  The other said that January’s prices had gone up “solidly”.  It’s no wonder that people get confused about the real estate market.

Now comes two new reports, one by the National Association of Realtors, the other by the Commerce Department.  If you only read the headlines you would believe that the sky is falling.  In fact Bloomburg’s report using Commerce Department data is entitled “Housing rebound in the U.S. loses steam…”  Ah, but the devil is in the details.  I’m here to tell you that there’s no loss of steam in The Glen’s (in Glenview) housing market.

As one reads these new reports carefully it becomes apparent that the loss of sales is primarily among homes priced under $300,000.  First time home buyers, therefore, are having a difficult time.  This is due largely to more stringent lending standards and higher mortgage interest rates.  Higher priced luxury homes, like those in The Glen, are selling well now that the severe winter is behind us.  Prices are continuing to rise as well.  Here in The Glen the only significant barrier to greater sales is low inventory.  But when quality homes come on the market, they are selling at a rapid pace; and this is true in most price points.  Homes in The Glen, depending on neighborhood sell from the mid-$300’s to well over a million dollars.  The average price paid for Glen homes in 2013 was $654,657.

So…the real estate market in The Glen is rolling along nicely.  I believe we will experience a very nice gain in sales, certainly in home prices, when we see year-end numbers next January.

If you may be interested in living in The Glen, please contact me.  I am a long time Glen homeowner and an award winning Realtor affiliated with @properties.

Margaret Ludemann  847-401-1802   margaretLudemannl@gmail.com

Home sales surge, prices rise, time on market falls in The Glen

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2013 was the year that Glen homeowners have been waiting for.  The Glen is an upscale residential and retail development in Glenview, Illinois in the Chicago area’s North Shore. The real estate market for its homes was exceptionally strong.  Sales were up considerably, prices rebounded nicely, and the time it took to sell homes fell.  Further, nearly every Glen home listed for sale in 2013 sold.

Broad economic factors positively influenced existing home sales in the U.S. which gained 9.3% for the year.  The U.S. economy gathered strength through 2013.  Job growth continued to climb.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the unemployment rate fell to 7% by November 2013 from 7.9% in January 2013 and from its recent high of 10% in October 2009.  Interest rates remained at historically low levels, though they inched upward during the year.  Low rates and the prospect of higher future interest rates served as incentives for many potential home buyers.  Stocks soared during the year with the S & P 500 gaining 29.6% which no doubt made potential home buyers feel more financially secure.

Years of declining values once again brought many bargain hunting investors into the U.S. housing market.  Pent up demand by trade-up buyers also fueled the increase in home sales. 

As prices rose during the year fewer homeowners found themselves “under water” (homes worth less than the mortgage balance), thereby reducing their incentive to sell.  This resulted in a decline of available housing inventory.  Over the last several years sellers far outnumbered buyers, but that was reversed in 2013 giving sellers the negotiating advantage.  The result…further improvement in home prices.

It was the best year for home sales and prices in years, and you will see that reflected in my future blogs dealing specifically with sales of Glen homes.

Margaret Ludemann

Glen homeowner and @properties Realtor

Surprise Fed Announcement Good News for Home Sales

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I have an excuse for knowing about Gomer Pyle, Jim Nabors’ hayseed character on the 1960’s Andy Griffith show.  My husband is older than me (!) and he watches re-runs on ME-TV.  I bring this up because of his call to me Wednesday in his spot-on impression of Gomer’s signature adage…Sur-prise Sur-prise Sur-prise!  He had just heard of The Fed’s surprise announcement that it would continue its easy money, stimulus policy to, among other things, drive down mortgage interest rates which had been moving up the last couple of months.  This was indeed a surprise decision; and for the housing market it was most welcome.

While housing sales have been robust this year (in The Glen and elsewhere), there was universal concern that sales would slow and price increases would moderate as interest rates continued to climb.  None of us want another housing bubble, but home values are still below pre-crash levels so all homeowners would like to see continued improvement.

What does this mean for homeowners who may want to sell their homes?  Two things.  One, as interest rates fall more buyers can afford your home because they will be able to secure mortgages of higher values.  (Every 1% rise in interest rates reduces buying power by 11%.)  Two, sellers will have to move; and they will be able to afford higher priced homes.

The bottom line is this:  If you want to sell your home in this vastly improved housing market, the odds are very high that it will sell; and it is likely to sell at a decent price, certainly better than had it sold last year.  The market will remain robust until about Thanksgiving, so if you want to sell this year you should get your home on the market in the next few weeks.  The market will pick up again in March; and if that is a better time for you, plan to list your home in late February.